Prediction: Spring 2012 (if at all)

Jan 13th, 2010 | By Michel Marizco | Category: General News, Politics

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THE BORDER REPORT

So, we have Arturo Beltran down; a blow to his own family, the Zetas and Juarez. Then we have Teodoro Garcia, Teo, and that’s a blow to Mayo and Chapito. Hm. Uno y uno. Granted, Teo’s never been more than a regional drug trafficker and, frankly, barely that. I remember seeing a crew of his taken down in Tijuana, must have been some eight months ago. Police Chief Leyzaola had boasted that he would eliminate “the smaller elements irritating his city like a virus.”

When they came for the crew, it was three grossly obese youth in their early twenties at best; they had tried to rob a Pemex near Otay. One kept pulling his pants up; he didn’t have a belt. The whole thing was a little depressing, frankly, and for myself, signaled a turn in perspective away from the image of the silk-shirted, rangy Sinaloan killers in cowboy boots and flashy truck to the grim realities of poverty, a lax education system and the general desmadre this drug war has become. In spite of this, I’ve always given Teo the credit that, successful or enough, Luis Fernando Sanchez Arellano, El Ingeniero, had been unable to rid himself of the menace. In the fight to depose a leader, the fact that Teo held his own for more than two years is either a sign of his significant resources or telling evidence of the Arellano family’s declining power.

The Mexican press has somewhat myopically focused on El Pozolero’s magical 300 number and applied those numbers to Teo. It’s been the headline all day, from El Universal in DF to Frontera in Tijuana. An absurd statistic that does nothing to delve into the rampant campaign of murder Teo’s people have brought onto Tijuana’s streets since summer 2008. Those 300 are but a small faction of the people who have died because of Teo.

But perhaps it’s a moot point now. Pres. Felipe Calderon has thus far eliminated two banes of his presidential existence; the immediate threat to the stalwarts from Sinaloa. It could lead to a brokered peace, but I’d caution against that optimism. We can’t predict the future, but sometimes the past lends itself to a nice foreshadowing of what we can expect now.

For the moment, Calderon has taken the game back to the strategies of Carlos Salinas de Gortari. If you recall, it was Pres. Salinas’ drug czar, Gen. Gutierrez Rebollo, who backed Amado Carrillo against the hated Arellanos. The Americans intervened when Guillermo Calderoni turned witness against his government and reported the drug czar’s involvement with Carrillo to the U.S. Attorney’s Office. (It’s somewhat ironic; perhaps had the U.S. not gotten involved in the politics behind Gutierrez’s appointment, he could have eliminated the Arellanos and helped establish Carrillo as the sole importer of narcotics to the U.S. An admittedly brokered peace, true, but still a peace.)

If Mexico’s PAN party is going to establish itself as the party of national security, the move against Ismael Mayo Zambada and Joaquin Chapo Guzman will need to come in two years, the spring 2012. Just before the elections. If he takes Guzman and Zambada now, and that is assuming he is going to at all, the memory of what would be a remarkable achievement will have been forgotten. Two years is an eternity in politics.

But maybe I’m just cynical.

34 comments
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el cardian January 13th, 2010 10:59 pm
El chapo controla todo nunca lo van agarar
YeYo January 13th, 2010 11:35 pm
FINALLY some good writing after your hiatus Border Reporter..It makes alot of of sense but I would like to think that tres letras was important for Chapo/Mayo but maybe just maybe they where a little intimidated by the way he held of the Arrellano group.Seeing that they couldnt do it themself or himself refering to Chapo.This is just a hypothisis but I would rather have him weaken the enemy and then get rid of him before he starts hogging the plaza and thinking he runs shit..After all he might have been the most powerfull man in baja and has proved to put up a good fight when tested..If thing are what it seems to be Mayos people have infultrated 3s connections in the border and he might now be useless and more of a detremant to an orginazation that want less media attention.
rabbit January 14th, 2010 5:18 am
Just a thought, but maybe the real power house in TJ is laying low waiting for all the dust to settle. Big market there. I don’t believe that El Mayo or Chapito will ever get served a significant blow during this president narco war. He got loud mouthed Arturo, so what. Some one or some group has to eventually take control of this multi billion dolar industry eventually. Amado carrillo was the man in his day. Its El Mayo’s turn. That crew is the domitating factor right now. Doesn’t look like that will change any time soon. Within the next two years goverment policy will change the landscape. A new president will bring much needed and appreciated relief. Maybe someday things will just get back to business, instead of the insanity. (Same thing over and over again expecting a different result). Calderon will shift a big part of his efforts somewhere else. He showed the U.S. that he’s a team player. But in Mexico, a lot of what you see is all for show. The government can’t stop what they got their hands in up their neck. Remember, the more things change, the more they stay the same.
vinotinto January 14th, 2010 9:10 am
No solution but revolution, the people must rise against both, the Narco Estado and the Estado Endrogado.
Flatua dE queso January 14th, 2010 9:25 am
Teo= Patsy?
PITUDO January 14th, 2010 11:43 am
EL MAYO ES EL PAPA DEL CHAPO PINCHE CHAPO ES UN CHALAN VIVA LOS ZAMBADA
ilegal January 14th, 2010 3:23 pm
i found this baby in “Proceso”, this article could make Calderon kind of nervous (imo) http://www.proceso.com.mx/rv/modHome/detalleExclusiva/75532
Nadien January 14th, 2010 5:39 pm
Here is the original article from the Economist en english.

http://www.economist.com/world/americas/displaystory.cfm?story_id=15213785
YeYo January 14th, 2010 8:17 pm
Good link Nadien alot of good stuff on there…I like the transactional instead of teritorial part kinda makes sense but then Juarez comes to mind…Well without a doubt the group that focuses on money insted of turf will come out on top.
ilegal January 14th, 2010 10:40 pm
http://afntijuana.info/blog/wp-content/gallery/teo-cura/asdasd.jpg
Mario January 14th, 2010 11:06 pm
Teo, Muletas and Leyzaola…hahahahaa, that is funny
6-15 January 15th, 2010 4:27 pm
they said mr braun from the white house.. the mexican goverment are cooperating better now with the U.S thats why they have been capturing narcos….mr.brauns predicted that within 90 days el chapo wil be captured and that his days are counted by the goverment in united states he will be cornered…little by lilttle if you noticed all of a sudden there taking down big narcos nd sicarios ..the goverment mexican and the united states say they know where el chapo has been and his time is up?
Vincent Hanna January 16th, 2010 5:30 pm
FINE!!!! and SEXYY!!

http://www.kpbs.org/news/2010/jan/15/major-tijuana-drug-lord-captured/
T_R_C January 17th, 2010 1:12 pm
Does anyone know a blog or news site that has information on what goes on regularly in the Juarez area? The El Paso Times has really slowed down on news across the border and there is rarely specifics on the whos, wheres, and whys. The who done it kind of stuff. Thanks!
Mario January 17th, 2010 3:56 pm
TRC, for that I always go to Juarezpress.com, it is really good and update the news very quickly compared to others.
johnny January 18th, 2010 2:12 pm
viva el chapo but el mayo is the true number 1 pays so much and he just lays low while chapo number 2 is the front man the one everyone talks about but viva el chapo i dont see either of these two ever gettin caught anytime in the near future they are truly a very powerful force i mean the top and second to top in all of mexico in the drug world ……..
wtf January 18th, 2010 4:05 pm
“viva el chapo” what a dumb fuck, i pity fools like you. idolizing drug traff’s as if they were gods.
Retard January 18th, 2010 4:23 pm
I know he should admire Slave owners like George Washington.
carlos January 18th, 2010 5:45 pm
traficantes son la pura mierda de la sociedad-mas los pendejos que se cren – venden muerte -y todo lo que tocan vale mierda-estos idiotas que se cren mafiosos son drogadictos y habladores de falsos
T_R_C January 18th, 2010 7:02 pm
Mario, do you know of anything in English in the Juarez area. I am gringo and only understand about 25 % of what is written. I got some out of juarezpress and will continue to use it. I would also like something on JL and the Sinaloa Luet in charge of that area. Specifically who he is so i can follow it better. Thanks for the referral.
T_R_C January 18th, 2010 8:08 pm
Mexico decriminalized drugs and made small quantities legal for a reason and it was not because of the inconvenience of putting addicts in jail. They have a plan for sure. I have said all this before on this site but due to the speculation on El Chapo’s arrest, it needs to be restated. I suspect we will see heavy cartel wars for at least 5 more months. I also do not think Mexico can wait 2 year for the sensational news of his capture. I believe that if the DEA spokesperson says 90 days for his capture, it will be 150 days as they are never timely. I expect after that, someone, El Mayo, El Azul will take the lead in a truce. Identified Import Plazas and Fronteresa Plazas will be established and we will see an enormous change in Mexico.
Mexico will legalize drug sale and use within 2 years and will have a plan to tax it. Then the import plaza cartels become legal distributors and the front-line plaza cartels become retail distributors and everybody is happy. Amsterdam all over again. Everybody is happy and Americans can go get high on vacation, tourism is good, prostitution will boom, and business is good. What is legal in Mexico is easily imported into the US.
Mexico must get rid of the idolized sociopathic coke heads leading the cartels and replace them with business minded criminals with far less egos to feed than the ones currently ruining that country.
The US expects this and will be ok with it because they will still have their backward laws in place and we will still juices police and criminal justice systems because of fear they can raise about “drugs and Mexico.”
roqueni January 19th, 2010 5:23 am
Never happen. Too much politics.
roqueni January 19th, 2010 5:28 am
Carlos, you sound like an idiot. Pull your head out!
Mario January 19th, 2010 11:56 am
I agree with you carlos, i think you struck a nerve on someone.
Calle January 19th, 2010 7:47 pm
HAPPY ANNIVERSARY CHAPO. 9 YEARS HOPE YOU GET TO MANY MORE.
frontera January 21st, 2010 2:52 am
shout out 2 JERSEY ! Politacal
FLIP January 21st, 2010 12:15 pm
i have aquestion? in 08 didnt abl kill one chalo’s kids and when they ppped him gonzalito was with him? WTf i dont get it?
johnny January 22nd, 2010 1:43 pm
wtf man i pity dumb ass fucks like u u dont know nothing about nothing if u dont care about stuff like this y are u even on the site u dujmb ass and just because i say chapo rules which is true doesnt mean i idolize him u stupid ass i know more about all of this then u ever will in many lifetimes
rabbit January 22nd, 2010 9:47 pm
Don’t let em get to you, johnny. Keep your head up.
vinotinto January 23rd, 2010 2:13 pm
Rabbit your point of view is needed on a site such as this.
pocas palabras January 23rd, 2010 8:15 pm
son como una patada en el culo-se van corriendo
Jerry January 25th, 2010 7:22 pm
From the Economist:
“Sinaloa, by contrast, has stuck to drugs and money laundering and is smarter and more sophisticated. It prefers anonymity to the ostentation of others (Mr Beltrán was undone by inviting a famous accordionist to play at a Christmas party). It eschews jobless teenagers, its rivals’ rank and file, in favour of graduates, infiltration and intelligence. ‘

This rings true,When the massacre at “the Y” happened last year most of the chopped up bodies were local unemployed teenagers.In a creepy side note a month before the killing a gangsterific suv load of guys stopped to look at my house for sale (they came via the beach so the poor guards didn’t have to try to keep them out)and noticed my 18 volt makita cordless sawsall kit on the table. A exchange of 300 bucks put it in the suv.I hope it’s just being used to cut mesquite firewood. Things are real quiet down my way now.The word is all the young guys that were not killed were replaced by out of town older guys.
hahaha January 26th, 2010 6:10 pm
LMFAO@ johny getting mad…that’s when you know when people don’t know sh1t…
matt January 27th, 2010 4:41 am
This site is awesome just the way it is. Great place to for dirty info on the what’s now. The trolls are anoying, but there are a few people that just are powerful with their words. Esmeralda is interesting. Yeyo has a good spin on things. Rabbit is interesting, to say the least. Then there are those that place no value at all. All of it seems to work, though. The personal attacks on Rabbit were out of line, backed by no real fact. I have been visitting this site for a while, first comment I have posted. In Nor Cal where I live, my community is always in the spotlight. I live in what’s called the emerald triangle, America’s home grown marijuana capital. So I don’t get to see the Mexico problems. I have gotten great info here. Don’t change a thing. I would try to post more info from some of your commentors, though. Get the good ones comming back. Makes things more interesting. You can always tell when some one knows their stuff. Keep up the dirty work, michel!