THE BORDER REPORT

It's been more than a week and La Linea continues to be targeted for the triple murders of people tied to the U.S. Consulate in Cd. Juárez; the Americans continuing to state they believe that it was a case of mistaken identity. Departing from my skepticism of the theory for the  moment, let's say it's true. Let's say the killers targeted the wrong people. So who were they targeting? Follow me for a moment because this is confusing.

As observers, we believe, and both the Americans and the Mexicans have said, that the killers followed both cars then opened fire, killing Alberto Salcido first, in his white Honda Pilot. Then they killed Lesley Enriquez and Arthur Redelfs in their white Toyota Rav 4. These are facts that seem to be without dispute. Here is Cd. Juárez mayor Jose Reyes Ferriz, telling CNN that the victims had been followed. "We know that the U.S. citizens were targeted. We know they were chasing them. We know they wanted to kill them." One of those being searched for is Eduardo Ravelo, an Azteca gangleader. Nobody has actually said Ravelo had anything to do with the murders of course, so I do wonder a little if the media didn't pick him out to develop a "face behind the killings" style story.

Question 1: At what point did the killers start following them?

Enriquez and Redelfs were killed within ten minutes of Salcido. The coordination involved in doing two separate jobs suggests there was more than one group of gunmen. Nine-millimeter rounds were used to kill Enriquez and Redelfs. 7.62 shell casings were found at Salcido's murder scene. After killing Salcido, it seems improbable that one group of killers would be able to track Enriquez and Redelfs to another part of the city and shoot them as well. Possible, but unlikely. I think we can safely dismiss the idea that there was only one group of gunmen. Now, we've been told the killers may have wanted to chase down a separate pair of white SUVs. Assuming this is true, then: If the killers picked up the trail after leaving the party, it would have had to have been at some point when the SUVs were traveling together, before Enriquez and Redelfs turned off onto Calle Lerdo from Avenida Fronterizo. Salcido was killed at Avenida Insurgentes and Articulo 29, at least a mile away. If they followed the wrong victims from the party itself, what other people in yet another pair of white SUVs were at that childrens' birthday party? Keep in mind two things: the party was at the U.S. Consulate and Enriquez's Rav 4 had Texas plates. Was there another white SUV with Texas plates parked at the consulate? Did its driver leave in conjunction with another white SUV with Chihuahua plates? If yes, then who were they?

Question 2: One case of mistaken identity or two?

You'll notice that the U.S. government has only said there may have been a case of mistaken identity. They didn't state if one or all three of the victims were mistaken targets. Are we being told that all three victims were mistaken identity or only one or two of them? If it were one case of mistaken identity with three wrong victims, why hunt them down separately? Makes no sense. At least one group of hitmen wielded AK-47s, the killings were in open daylight on busy streets. They could have easily taken both SUVs out together; they didn't seem to care whether there were witnesses (the Juárez mayor said a city police officer witnessed one of the attacks). Two cases of mistaken identity suggests anarchy and ineptitude – particularly because of who the victims were affiliated with: the U.S. Consulate. It seems too remarkable a coincidence to believe that the killers first mistook Salcido for someone else and then mistook Enriquez and Redelfs for yet another couple, particularly because they had Texas plates.

Possible Answer: One case of mistaken identity, two groups of gunmen, victims followed from the party

If neither case is true, then the killers followed the pair of white SUVs directly from the party itself. And if they followed the SUVs from the party, and it was mistaken identity, then there were at least two other people who arrived in separate vehicles (both white SUVs) at that party who were being targeted. Who else was at the party?

In El Paso, more than 200 agents interrogated 100 members of La Linea, looking for clues (it led to one of my colleagues wondering who came up with "Operation Knock Down"). My sense is that if the Americans and the Mexicans want to pursue the idea that the wrong people were killed, they are better served finding the guest list for the party and see who else was driving a white SUV.