THE BORDER REPORT

Stories about declining numbers of crossings are flying out to a metronome beat of war drums. That's precisely what the Bush Administration is aiming for and the mainstream media is happily going for it, chasing after the easy story (officials say the number is dropping) and ignoring realities (those same officials refuse to say how many people they actually catch). The misinformation comes in the form of migrants fearing the National Guard presence on the border and that's dropping the number of illegal border crossings. The logic is as painful to watch as a slow-moving train wreck and it works out something like this: Less illegal border crossers are being captured and that means less people are coming in, the National Guard presence is working. How do we know less people are crossing? Are less people being captured because illegal entries are shifting to another crossing point on the border? It's hot these days in June and every year, less people try to come in during the summer months; the real influx is the spring. Newspapers are reporting a 23 percent decline in Arizona compared to last year. But that number assumes the same number of people tried to cross this year as last. If the U.S. Border Patrol would release accurate numbers of apprehensions we could come up with an accurate success rate. The sham works like this: Juan and Pablo cross the border and are captured. That's two apprehensions. They opt for a return to Mexico, then try again. Get caught again. That's two more apprehensions. They try ten times total and that's 20 apprehensions for the record books. A more accurate record keeping would be: Juan and Pablo are caught after they tried to cross ten times each. That's two people arrested. Period. But the agency has repeatedly turned down Freedom of Information Act requests for the real number. The agency has the number because every illegal entrant is run through the FBI's criminal database, the Integrated Automated Fingerprint identification System, IAFIS. I can only assume, based off those FOIA refusals, that illegal border crossings are not dropping at all. If they were, I'm certain the Border Patrol and its umbrella agency, Customs and Border Protection, would be churning out the data for all to see. They're bluffing and they're keeping the cards close to their chest, afraid to show it, hoping they don't lose the hand. I can't criticize the administration for this sham, first, because illegal immigration existed long before Bush became president, but secondly, well, it's the feds; what else are they going to say? The shame lies on the media loons plugging the party line and ignoring the incovenient. It takes a lot more work to question the oh-so-questionable data than it does to write down what the same officials say. But isn't that what the feds are banking on? Nobody's asking the hard questions. That's too bad.

THE BORDER REPORT

We're hitting a quagmire on the president's plans for the border and the troops ain't even arrived yet. As usual when it comes to this border, there's much flexing, tough-talkin', and boot-stomping and very little in the way of substance. Logistics and a sound man-with-a-plan are sorely absent from any discussion while cheap media allows itself to be fed happy news. It's painful sometimes, like watching re-runs of the politburo's Tass news service. Who exactly has got the manuscript for a border plan because right now, we're hearing a lot about more agents, more fences and more drones, but nothing about reality. One National Guard troops supply post, New Mexico, is running into roadblocks on its own and may be delayed because nobody can figure out what they're supposed to do nor where they're supposed to live while they're down here. The U.S. Border Patrol has tripled in size since 2001, standing at a whopping 15,000 agents but oversight for the agents remains at a minimum with only four Office of Inspector General agents working in the Tucson sector while the Patrol's idea of fighting corruption is to engage in mandatory shift-swaps - a move that the sector's union is fighting. Uncomfortable questions were raised this morning when it was determined the agency is running out of money to pay overtime for its search and rescue teams and its dog handlers. Are there overtime caps for the Border Patrol's public information office? That's a little mean-spirited but a fair question considering how much airtime is being given to the Border Patrol's build-up while half of the U.S. illegal immigrant population came breezing in through the ports of entry - not the desert between the ports. That's according to a Modes of Illegal Entry report from the Pew Hispanic Center that says 45 percent of illegal immigrants simply overstayed their visas or ignored the restrictions of their border crossing cards. The rhetoric is flying fast with Border Patrol Chief David Aguilar and President Bush clamoring for support and outlying "ideas" that give little specifics beyond stating that there's going to be more agents, more fences and more helicopters. Couple these vague notions with a shot of the president on a dune buggy or a sharp-looking BORSTAR agent cutting sign and that's the news baby.

THE BORDER REPORT

I don't like repeating myself and wasting your time, but again, exactly how many National Guard troops are we looking at for the U.S.-Mexico border and what precisely are they going to be doing? Media reports are coming in fast and furious but few agree on any details: The Salt Lake Tribune: "Now, just weeks after President Bush told the nation he would send National Guard troops to help enforce anti-illegal immigration patrols along the U.S.-Mexico border, a group of combat-tested engineers from Utah has been called south. The Utah soldiers will be among the first to serve in what is being called Operation Jump Start." From Associated Press: "A small detachment of Connecticut National Guard soldiers will arrive here today to help with security on the U.S.-Mexican border but not as part of a 6,000-troop deployment scheduled to help the U.S. Border Patrol. Nor are about 50 Utah National Guard soldiers who will arrive today in Yuma." This isn't unusual; in the rush for the scoop comes many screw-ups, but what I find disturbing is that both stories cite official sources: National Guard Bureau spokeswoman Nakatu McFadden in Utah and Lt. Col. John Whitford, communications director for the Connecticut Guard. Meanwhile, the southern Utah paper, The Spectrum wrote their own brief story, saying: "Originally conceived as simply a cooperative effort between the Utah and Arizona National Guards, the mission is now considered part of Operation Jump Start, the effort called for by President George W. Bush to send National Guard troops to the U.S.-Mexico border in a supporting role to federal authorities." So, are they or aren't they and why the big secret? I know that part of the big hush-hush on all this is for the upcoming dog and pony show, but I'm also wondering if there's really a plan? These are battle-tested National Guard troops after all. They've already done work in places like Iraq and Nicaragua. I'm certain that governors Schwarzenneger, Napolitano, Richardson and Perry, want to drag out the show as long as they can. I wouldn't be surprised if there were old school send-offs from the troops' states of origin as they come to southern Arizona to take over Border Patrol duties. But, keeping in mind that up to three days ago, none of these governors was particularly anxious to pay for the troops, I wonder if a plan has actually been developed. We've seen this kind of message mismanagement before of course. Last year, part of the $1.5 million "border emergency" Napolitano declared was used to chop down weeds in Yuma County. Just the fact that the governor declared an emergency was enough to generate front page news. Nobody seemed to care what the emergency status really meant. It kicked loose emergency money from the reserve to help with the emergency. And part of the was the aforementioned weeds. We're seeing it again, receiving a lot of fluffy information (they're here to help the Border Patrol) and very little real facts (how many and how long will they be here?)

THE BORDER REPORT

Ten soldiers of the National Guard are coming to Arizona. To dig three wells.