THE BORDER REPORT
Now that we've gotten the inauguration out of the way, we can look around at what to expect from Pres. Obama's administration on this border.
And so far, it's looking like a Hail Maria pass, replete with talk of Mexico as a failed nation, one that is presenting as many if not more problems than Iraq and Iran and the re-introduction of the conversation about the U.S. military being placed on the border.
This time, nobody talks about unarmed National Guardsmen, either. I think that is one element of Homeland Security Sec. Janet Napolitano (
man, that's a weird proper noun to type out) that's been skipped over: her enthusiasm for soldiers on the border. She was a key cheerleader for them in 2006 and as recent as last November, was pushing for them to return.
And now there's a very, very different level of discourse about Mexico; Washington's talking about militarizing the border, not to keep illegal migrants away but to stop cartel wars from spilling over. Take a look at some of the warnings high level Feds tossed out within the past month:
Sometime around Christmas when Homeland Security leaked to The New York Times that if the border violence were to spill over, the department has a plan for activating special response units to quell any problems.
(Myself, I’ve been watching the Special Response Units, SWATs for the Feds, race from Douglas, Ariz., to Nogales and back east to Naco half a dozen times in the past year alone, usually because of something a snitch leaked out. I think Homeland Security would be better served by investing in better intelligence in Mexico than hurtling armed agents at whomever they think is coming but nobody asked me what I thought.)
Then CIA chief Michael Hayden said Mexico poses a bigger problem for the incoming Obama Administration than Iraq. Then National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley piped up, saying Mexico’s democracy is being threatened by warring cartels. The conversation’s going viral, bouncing from official to official to the media and out to the public.
Topping the list, the U.S. Joint Forces Command, with the ominous message that Mexico is right down there with Pakistan as a country facing potential collapse:
“The Mexican possibility may seem less likely, but the government, its politicians, police and judicial infrastructure are all under sustained assault and press by criminal gangs and drug cartels. ... Any descent by Mexico into chaos would demand an American response based on the serious implications for homeland security alone.”
Clearly, someone is orchestrating this debate; the question is why?
I’ve been hearing about Mexico’s impending collapse since 2003; at the time, it was usually blamed on the Brain Drain, an exodus of intelligence and education to the United States as people fled the lack of decent jobs. Then the blame shifted to the Zetas after Nuevo Laredo exploded. And now it’s the Sinaloans and an apparently ceaseless war that’s drawn on since at least late 2004 when Rodolfo Carrillo Fuentes and Arturo Guzmán were murdered. (
Happy anniversary to Chapo Guzmán on eight successful years on the run, by the way).
It's a new day but it's an old border. Watch the U.S.’s next maneuver toward placing soldiers on the border. It'll be interesting to see how it manifests itself. Will someone (
Napolitano) directly propose it? Or will it begin with an incident; training exercises along Cabeza Prieta, maybe.
And as always with these things, the question arises, who’s going to benefit.