THE BORDER REPORT

I was hoping this week would be a good opportunity to take a closer look at the Obama Administration's movement of 1,200 National Guard units to the Mexico border. According to this Arizona Republic article, it's gonna be a few weeks.* The first question I have is, why. While I continue to believe that the National Guard movement is for Americans' peace of mind (those not living in border states, anyway) and not to stop illegal immigration or drug trafficking, I'd like to point out the astuteness of the story; the administration said Aug. 1. Apparently they meant they were going to start addressing the movement of troops on that day. The second question, of course, is what are they going to be doing? We are told the Guard units will free up agents to focus on illegal migrants and narcos and that's great, but what does that mean? That the Guard units will be patrolling? So the Guard will act like spotters and the Border Patrol will act like chasers? Is this the plan? Because I thought that's what the $50 million in remote video surveillance system spent this year was for. That money, by the way, came from Recovery Act funding after Homeland was forced to scrap its ambitious plans for SBINet. If 2006 is any indication, allow me to explain what the Guard will be doing on the border. I'm on the road and doing this from memory but I won't easily forget the tasks the Guardsmen were assigned to do when they were here last time. 1. They will take the place of existing engineers with the Army Corps of Engineers and dig wells. 2. Others will draw maps of the U.S.-Mexico border, as if this is some new Lunar outpost that's never before been cartographed. 3. The ... intelligence ... units will be composed of bilingual teams who will read Mexican newspapers and web sites (Bienvenidos!) and draw up analyses based off those reports. Using the U.S. State Department's Morning Report - which does the same task, though far better, and is sent to every federal law enforcement supervisor ranked GS-13 and above, already - would make too much fiscal sense. The last time we tried this, the U.S. suffered its biggest defeat since the Alamo after a group of Sasabe-based drug traffickers walked up to a Guard observation post, presumably to see what they'd do. Under orders, the Guardsmen retreated and called Border Patrol in. They later received a commendation for the effort. This time around, Homeland Security Sec. Janet Napolitano has asked that the units be armed and they will be, though they'll only be able to fire in self-defense. Arizona will be receiving 524 of the 1,200 Guardsmen; in my opinion, they'd be best put to use as a single mobile deterrent force, a wall of green able to move randomly from one section of border to the next on a moment's notice, disrupting the smugglers' tactics and keeping them guessing as to where the wall will show up next. An Operation Hold the Line on a micro-scale. But that's just me. We'll see what happens next. *Credit should have gone to the Arizona Republic, which broke the story, and not The New York Times.

THE BORDER REPORT

I honestly thought she would go the other way, but U.S. District Court Judge Susan Bolton struck down four of the key provisions of Senate Bill 1070 this morning, marginalizing what's been construed as the toughest state enforcement of federal immigration law in the country. The four key elements she blocked are: 1. Arizona will not be able to require cops to check the immigration status of someone they stop or arrest. 2. The segment of the law making it a crime to fail to carry immigration papers. 3. The segment that makes it a crime for an illegal migrant to seek or perform work. 4. Allowing police to make a warrantless arrest if they believe the person committed a crime that would lead to being deported. This is the segment of Bolton's ruling that bothers me:

"The court finds that preserving the status quo through a preliminary injunction is less harmful than allowing state laws that are likely preempted by federal laws to be enforced."

In other words, Arizona's illegal immigration influx is less of a problem than a patchwork of state laws trying to replace what the federal government is supposed to be doing. Which the federal government is NOT doing. Arizona was scheduled to begin enforcing 1070 Thursday. The court just brought us right back where we started. I find it unfortunate, not because I ever believed Arizona cops would actually have an impact on illegal immigration – they won't – but because the new law forced the federal government to take action, and I had hoped that action would come in the methodology of a comprehensive immigration reform bill. Instead, no change; status quo. I thought the judge would slap the feds around because last week, Bolton grilled the Obama Administration's lawyers on the issue of preemption; asking how the state's checking of identifications would be a preemptive act infringing on the Constitution's supremacy clause that says federal law beats out state every time. The response from Justice Department was that because the status checks were mandatory, ICE would be over-whelmed by deportation and processing requests from Arizona law enforcement. In essence, the United States argued they don't have the manpower to deal with Arizona's immigration law enforcement. You can read the Judge's decision in its entirety at TucsonSentinel.com. Here's the Feds' public relations office's response to the ruling: “We believe the court ruled correctly when it prevented key provisions of SB1070 from taking effect.  While we understand the frustration of Arizonans with the broken immigration system, a patchwork of state and local policies would seriously disrupt federal immigration enforcement and would ultimately be counterproductive. States can and do play a role in cooperating with the federal government in its enforcement of the immigration laws, but they must do so within our constitutional framework. This administration takes its responsibility to secure our borders seriously and has dedicated unprecedented resources to that effort. We will continue to work toward smarter and more effective enforcement of our laws while pressing for a comprehensive approach that provides true security and strengthens accountability and responsibility in our immigration system at the national level.” Thank you for your acknowledgment that it is indeed broken.

THE BORDER REPORT

Couple things then I'm going straight back to work: Much has been about this recent carbomb in Juárez, the Colombianization of Mexico, the up-tick in violence, the changing game. None of which is true.

The Beltrán Leyvas used car bombs in Sinaloa when they were attacking the Sinaloa Federation's safe houses in Culiacán. Yes, this carbomb that killed two federal cops, a medic and wounded seven others was more sophisticated, bomb, battery series and cellphone, while those in Sinaloa were merely gasbombs, and those were meant to target specific people within the Sinaloa syndicate. In this case, the point seemed to be pure intimidation and the propagation of fear (and guess what, it worked). Who would have had the motive to set off the bombs?

Read the full post

THE BORDER REPORT

Here's a story I did on the situation in Tubutama for the Nogales International. By now, the entire border world, from Nogales, Sonora, cops to the U.S. Department of Homeland Security to the radio stations to me, now know that a convoy of some 30 vehicles pulled into Nogales late Wednesday night. Everybody seems to know this except the Calderón and Padrés Administrations, apparently. According to a source at the FBI, nobody's sure whether the convoy is there to back the Sinaloans who got stomped trying to take out Gilo in the hills or whether these are Gilo's reinforcements. I anticipate they are reinforcing the Sinaloa Cartel and I'll tell you why. The Mexican government and the Sonoran State Police have chosen to stay out of the fight in the hills; yet we know for a fact that Gilo, Hector Beltrán Leyva's man, has clashed with the Army. According to a Border Patrol intel report, the Army clashed with Gilo on June 12 – and I think we can safely presume they lost that battle since Gilo is still there a month later. It has been said in the past, by people smarter than I, that Calderón is focusing his efforts on Sinaloa's rivals, including Beltrán Leyva, Barbie, and the Zetas. Depending on whom you choose to believe, the Mexican government is doing so either to A) finish off the smaller cartels to bring peace to the country or B) because they are in the pay of the Sinaloa Federation. What's going on in Nogales right now is a great example of this. The Army and the state police have left the convoy alone and they've been there some 36 hours now. This suggests the Calderón Administration is letting the Sinaloans finish the job for them. Or try to, anyway. From what people are saying, the convoy has been driving around Nogales all morning. In the July 1 battle, the Sinaloans were backed up by the locals, Sinaloa loyals including Felix the Ice Cream Man, Raúl Sabori and Nini Beltrán but it's been said on this website that the outsiders took the lead on that attack and that's why they failed so badly. Here's what one Nogales resident said: "Good to know the locals can hold their own against those pushy outsiders!" To be fair, the road up to Tubutama can be tricky to find ...(here's a hint, Tubutama is to the west). Someone buy them boys a map.

THE BORDER REPORT

Update: Milenio has a story saying Beltran's people attacked Chapo's people in Tubutama. But fue al contrario, no? Los Jabalines attacked Felix the Ice Cream Man, which means Chapo and the Sinaloa Federation attacked (and lost) to the Beltrans. Que dice la raza? A ... hitchhiker ... from Sasabe tells me "it was a complete ass kicking on the guys who came in via auto," suggesting that Los Jabalines got smoked, which would mean the Sinaloans took the worst of it, yes? One of you, Mario, was amusing with this post when it was determined that the Jabalines painted large X's on their vehicles so as not to confuse themselves with the enemy:

Se marcan la X pa identificarse entres ellos mismo pero a la misma vez valio madre, asi tambien los pueden identificar los grupos rivales.. they gotta come up with some new shit.

A CISEN source points out that most of the cars shot up were tagged with an enormous X, suggesting Jabalines, since we know that they've been marking their cars for identity's sake. The hitchhiker says it was a pure ambush, executed nearly flawlessly. (Photos, courtesy CISEN.) This makes sense when you consider there's only two roads in to the area, either through Altar to the east or through Magdalena from the west. Maybe it's not such a bad position for Ice Cream Man to be in. He can't get out, but the Sinaloans can't get in. If all that's the case, then I have to wonder what the military's doing watching the game play out from the sidelines. I'm not exaggerating when I tell you that there's some 400 soldiers roaming up and down the highways between Altar and Tubutama; I saw them Sunday and a law enforcement source tells me they've been running checkpoints and waiting for the inevitable battle since last week. Are they picking sides, letting both groups finish each other off or simply over-powered, manpower notwithstanding? Then there's this photo linked to above. This photo was snapped by a Diario de Sonora photographer, and though it's resolution is absolute shit, I'd like to know what that sign means. The two decapitated heads were jammed into the bars of the panteon Del Rosario, near the border. The message, from what I can see, says: "Saganle al toro autos Eber, M4, Colores, Navo .... " and that's as far as I got and that makes no sense whatsoever. Anyone care to take that one on?