THE BORDER REPORT

The Feds' 2010 Drug Threat Assessment has been released and its findings are representative of some cynical assumptions I've carried over the past three years: Mexican cartel wars or no cartel wars, this border is business as usual. I've long said that the best assessor of success or failure in drug law enforcement has been the market. The market doesn't lie and it doesn't spin. And what it's telling us now is that Mexico's drug cartels are busier than ever cultivating and trafficking our dope. Thousands dead or no, everyone is fat and happy.

Sixteen thousand people have died in the Mexican cartel and government wars since Pres. Felipe Calderón took office in 2006. Despite the gun battles, the beheadings, the dismemberments and the general chaos of a country under siege, drug production and trafficking into the U.S. have only improved. The U.S.'s and Mexico's efforts have had no effect. Consider these numbers: Heroin production in Mexico nearly doubled between 2007 and 2008, from 17 metric tons to 38. That led to higher purity content and cheaper prices in 2009. The Mexican Army has been too busy shooting narcos to worry much about burning  crops. As a result, marijuana eradication in Mexico dropped 48 percent. At least, that's the U.S. government's reasoning. It could be the case. My colleague, Malcolm Beith, a reporter in Mexico for many years, notes that crop burns are notoriously slow affairs. The Americans put it like this:

"The reduction is the result of the Mexican military's focus on antiviolence measures rather than illicit crop cultivation."

Which you would expect the American Feds to say, I suppose. The amount of marijuana grown in Mexico increased from an estimated 13,500 metric tons to 21,500 metric tons between 2003 and 2008. Think about that for a moment: in 2003, the border was virtually at peace; the Gulf Cartel's Zetas were just getting rolling in Nuevo Laredo; Joaquín Chapo Guzmán and El Viceroy Vicente Carrillo were at peace; the sibling killings wouldn't happen until the next year. In 2008, the Beltrán brothers had just split from the Sinaloa Federation, the Sinaloans invaded Cd. Juárez and everyone was staying away from Tamaulipas while El Teo Teodoro García had just started his vendetta against the Arellano Felix family in Tijuana. Northern Mexico was at war. Yet business continued; and flourished. Check out methamphetamine prices: From January 2007 to September 2009, meth's pure gram price dropped 13 percent while purity increased 22 percent. The only drug to see an increase in prices and a drop in availability has been cocaine. Between January 2007 and September 2009, cocaine prices increased an astonishing 75 percent while purity dropped 31 percent. Of course, between 2007 and 2009, the market crashed and the economy went down the toilet so it's possible that the cocaine consumers switched over to cheap thrills (meth), or numbed the pain (pot). The Feds' assumption is that the Colombians are seeking out global markets instead of dealing with the headache of Mexican traffickers. There's another point to consider: Colombia is slowly losing its power as a cocaine hegemon because of government forces backed by the U.S. This can be a handy line of reasoning as the U.S. increases aid to Mexico in its drug interdiction efforts. Of course, if this is the case, remember that it took them 20 years to finally get it right. One other fascinating point to consider is this footnote to the NDIC report.

No reliable estimates are available regarding the amount of domestically cultivated or processed marijuana. The amount of marijuana available in the United States--including marijuana produced both domestically and internationally--is unknown. Moreover, estimates as to the extent of domestic cannabis cultivation are not feasible because of significant variability in or nonexistence of data regarding the number of cannabis plants not eradicated during eradication seasons, cannabis eradication effectiveness, and plant-yield estimates.

Really? That's interesting. The U.S. has hard numbers on metric ton production in Mexico, including regions, individual growers and seizures, but no idea how much is produced in its borders. Boca abierta. O cerrada, as the case may be.

THE BORDER REPORT

The Minuteman Civil Defense Corps is no more. The Arizona Daily Star's got the scoop on the story here. But there's another armed group floating around down on the border (I mean, besides the Sinaloans). Federal agents have received complaints from hunters in Southern Arizona of being accosted by armed white men in camouflage who told the hunters they are with the Department of Homeland Security, sources say. They weren't affiliated with the Minuteman Civil Defense Corps, but law enforcement doesn't know yet who is driving this group, what their members are like, and what their motives are.

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THE BORDER REPORT A group of  restrictionists who last year saw one of their supporters arrested for the murder of a Mexican-American family in Southern Arizona, plans a return to this border armed with guns and rhetoric. SonoranNews.com, a conservative Web site in Arizona, reports that the Minuteman Civil Defense Corps, plans to come down to the border armed with rifles this time and will "forcefully engage, detain, and defend our lives and country from the criminals who trample over our culture and laws.” Led by Chris Simcox, an L.A. transplant to the Arizona border a decade ago, the group has attracted vast interest from the world media; mostly, I'm convinced, because reporters wanted to see them shoot an illegal migrant. Faced with criticism and skepticism, the Minuteman Project scaled back its initial operations in 2005, saying they were only going to observe and report illegal border activity to the U.S. Border Patrol and that volunteers would only be allowed to carry handguns. When that endeavor failed to attract much attention, the group, now divided amongst itself, turned to raising funds by claiming to erect Israeli-military-style fencing to stop the smugglers. All I ever saw was a barbed wire fence that went up near the Ladd Ranch around Naco, Ariz. Then there were problems with the money; as a non-profit organization, the group seemed to have claimed and spent most of its reported cash but former group members quit the group anyway, saying they were uncomfortable with how money questions were handled. Then there was the incident with Shawna Forde, a former Minuteman supporter who had appeared alongside group leaders (who then distanced themselves from her), now sitting in prison awaiting trial on a double murder for a home invasion she was accused of pulling last summer. With two of her cohorts, Forde is accused of rushing a home in Arivaca, trying to steal a suspected drug trafficker's money. They are accused of murdering Raul Flores, his nine-year-old daughter, Brisenia, and an attempted murder on Brisenia's mother. Sometime before that, Simcox had said he would run against Sen. John McCain; then pulled out of the race and is now backing J.D. Hayworth. Carmen Mercer, one of Simcox's supporters, tells SonoranNews.com: "This March we return to the border locked, loaded and ready to stop each and every individual we encounter along the frontier that is now more dangerous than the frontier of Afghanistan.” Well, it's spring time on the border; the weather is gorgeous, wildflowers blooming, soft breezes and cool desert air. Get ready for a fresh influx of reporters, talking heads, RVS, American flags, lawn chairs and talk. Lots of talk. I hope, for their sake, the Minuteman volunteers don't encounter a group of Sinaloan desperados. We will see. And Chris, you'll remember what happened the last time I ran into your Minuteman volunteers when they tried to stop me demanding identification. It wasn't pleasant for them then and it's going to be even less pleasant this time. Keep them boys alert, Chris. The border's changed.

THE BORDER REPORT

It's been more than a week and La Linea continues to be targeted for the triple murders of people tied to the U.S. Consulate in Cd. Juárez; the Americans continuing to state they believe that it was a case of mistaken identity. Departing from my skepticism of the theory for the  moment, let's say it's true. Let's say the killers targeted the wrong people. So who were they targeting? Follow me for a moment because this is confusing.

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THE BORDER REPORT

One rumor I'm hearing today is that U.S. Marines were present with the Mexican Navy last night during the gunbattle with Arturo Beltrán Leyva.

It may or may not be true. I have it tertiary from sources within the Sinaloa factions working here in the U.S. that I talk to from time to time. And of course, every time a significant arrest or killing is conducted in Mexico, there is a healthy suspicion that Americans were somehow involved. This of course, isn't helped by the fact that American federal agents have been spotted at some murder scenes, standing alongside their Mexican counterparts.

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