THE BORDER REPORT

So, the same day that the Mexican Army pulls out of Cd. Juarez, U.S. agents start spreading the rumor that the Juarez Cartel has been defeated?

Anyone want to continue disagreeing with my assessment that the Sinaloa Federation is being protected and supported by the Mexican government?

It's been clear for some time; from arrests like that of El Jabali last winter to the public relations campaign published by Proceso Magazine this week to the dissension within the Mexican Congress against what even two months ago was seen as an obvious move to protect Joaquin El Chapo Guzman.

El gordito is doing pretty well these days as the Mexican government succeeds in defeating his foes, like Arturo Beltran Leyva last December.  A certain .... someone ... is feeling pretty good right about now (Not me, I'm just feeling a little smug). I was thinking more in terms of this individual:

Pero bueno. Few things to watch for over the coming weeks:

1. Vicente Carrillo Fuentes. The Navolatoense's arrest, death or newly-formed partnership with the Bandidos from Badiraguato seems imminent. We'll see if the old love for his brother, Amado, will survive this round of negotiations. It's always been said by Sinaloans that the only reason he kept Juarez was because of the respect for Amado Carrillo. If the respect for the old bloodlines holds, he will rejoin the Sinaloans. The murders of Rodolfo in September 2004 and Arturo in December the same year will be forgiven.

2. Will Edgar Valdez Villarreal's merge with the newly formed Cartel del Pacifico Sur and they in turn with anybody? They'll have to if he is to survive a pitted war, first against Hector Beltran and then against Sinaloa. That's assuming he reaches a peace out with Hector Beltran. It's too soon for Sinaloa to forgive his treachery in breaking away with Arturo in 2008. If that's the case, my estimation is Fernando Sanchez Arellano's family in Tijuana and Baja California. They seem the most likely gang for him to join with because the Zetas have had a bounty out on Barbie's head since at least the 2004 wars for Nuevo Laredo and La Familia has, at least temporarily, merged with the Sinaloa Federation.

3. Will La Familia in Michoacan merge with the Gulf Cartel or the Sinaloa Federation after the Zetas are finished?

4. Will I have to retire early?

Bueno; pues esos hechos, mi estimado, solo lo puede decir el Jefe de Jefes. (Not that one, the other one. Ese ya valio miercoles.)

I'm out in the field on an assignment for a while. Behave or I'll put Esmerelda in charge.