THE BORDER REPORT

I was hoping this week would be a good opportunity to take a closer look at the Obama Administration's movement of 1,200 National Guard units to the Mexico border. According to this Arizona Republic article, it's gonna be a few weeks.* The first question I have is, why. While I continue to believe that the National Guard movement is for Americans' peace of mind (those not living in border states, anyway) and not to stop illegal immigration or drug trafficking, I'd like to point out the astuteness of the story; the administration said Aug. 1. Apparently they meant they were going to start addressing the movement of troops on that day. The second question, of course, is what are they going to be doing? We are told the Guard units will free up agents to focus on illegal migrants and narcos and that's great, but what does that mean? That the Guard units will be patrolling? So the Guard will act like spotters and the Border Patrol will act like chasers? Is this the plan? Because I thought that's what the $50 million in remote video surveillance system spent this year was for. That money, by the way, came from Recovery Act funding after Homeland was forced to scrap its ambitious plans for SBINet. If 2006 is any indication, allow me to explain what the Guard will be doing on the border. I'm on the road and doing this from memory but I won't easily forget the tasks the Guardsmen were assigned to do when they were here last time. 1. They will take the place of existing engineers with the Army Corps of Engineers and dig wells. 2. Others will draw maps of the U.S.-Mexico border, as if this is some new Lunar outpost that's never before been cartographed. 3. The ... intelligence ... units will be composed of bilingual teams who will read Mexican newspapers and web sites (Bienvenidos!) and draw up analyses based off those reports. Using the U.S. State Department's Morning Report - which does the same task, though far better, and is sent to every federal law enforcement supervisor ranked GS-13 and above, already - would make too much fiscal sense. The last time we tried this, the U.S. suffered its biggest defeat since the Alamo after a group of Sasabe-based drug traffickers walked up to a Guard observation post, presumably to see what they'd do. Under orders, the Guardsmen retreated and called Border Patrol in. They later received a commendation for the effort. This time around, Homeland Security Sec. Janet Napolitano has asked that the units be armed and they will be, though they'll only be able to fire in self-defense. Arizona will be receiving 524 of the 1,200 Guardsmen; in my opinion, they'd be best put to use as a single mobile deterrent force, a wall of green able to move randomly from one section of border to the next on a moment's notice, disrupting the smugglers' tactics and keeping them guessing as to where the wall will show up next. An Operation Hold the Line on a micro-scale. But that's just me. We'll see what happens next. *Credit should have gone to the Arizona Republic, which broke the story, and not The New York Times.

THE BORDER REPORT

Keep an eye on Hiram Francisco Quiñonez, Nacho Coronel's main man. He was Coronel's private secretary and from all accounts, not a narco but a businessman. The Americans are expecting he'll break early. I'm thinking, even sooner than that. He's already been turned over to the PGR from SEDENA. They're done with him, meaning he's soon to disappear into the Kafka-esque cellars of the Mexican judicial system. It is telling that he was fingered as a sicario, and not as a contadór, by the Mexican Feds. Yet, that's what he's been targeted as, an accountant, or a secretary. I spoke with an American intelligence official today, one from Mexico City, linked closely to the State Department following the arrest. Quiñonez kept current information on Nacho Coronel's whereabouts, his contacts, his dates and appointments. He was the scheduler for Mexico's Crystal King. I imagine he'll have lots to say. From the pictures of his being handed over to the PGR, the military torture him. That's a smart move, in my opinion, keeps the outrage levels down and the Americans happy. But Quiñonez is a businessman and may negotiate a way out of this. That, of course, is assuming the Mexican government didn't enter into an acuerdo with someone else and they don't need Quiñonez at all. I'd expect a Zeta or a Pacific Gulf startup, maybe a Valencia, to go down next. Another Sinaloan would be too obvious so soon, I guess. Whether the Mexicans can have a serious impact on the Sinaloans before Calderón's administration is up in two years will depend largely on whether the Sinaloans are willing to help build a peace. So far, they haven't. We'll find out.

THE BORDER REPORT

UPDATE: A good friend in Sasabe, Ariz., tells me the Americans closed the port of entry there early citing bad weather ... That port is only open until 8 p.m., and they closed at about 7:30, she says, but the unexpected closure leaves about 20 people stranded in Sasabe tonight. It's a town with a population of 25 people, it's not like there's a hotel for them to drive to and Tucson's an hour away. I could be wrong but I've never heard of the Americans closing the port because of weather conditions; frankly, I wonder if it wasn't because of the fight last night in Saric pero quien sabe. Good morning. Lots going on today. We'll start with Sonora. According to an FBI source earlier today: First, the Sinaloa Federation finally moved in on El Gilo in the hills between Sáric and Tubutama last night, about 7 p.m. The Mexican military has seized ten armored vehicles. There are reports of 30 to 40 people dead, with Guzmán's people having the upper hand. The Mexican Army is currently in the area.  Apparently, there was an accident involving Mexican Army soldiers unrelated to the firefight, who were enroute to the Sáric/Tubutama area.  Apparently several soldiers died in the accident. Then "El Dos Mil" Francisco Hernández García, has started acting up again. There was a shootout between Sonora state police and Dos Mil in San Pedro, just east of Hermosillo. At least one cop is dead. Then there was another gunbattle yesterday at the Nogales, Sonora, airport between rival gangs.  So far, two dead and another seriously injured. So you have Dos Mil in central Sonora, the Sinaloans appear to have killed "El Gilo" Arnoldo del Cid Buelno, Hector Beltrán Leyva's lieutenant in the hills just south of Arizona, and another fight at the airport. Gilo had some 300 men stocked in those towns. Two weeks ago, the Sinaloans tried to move on him but were defeated in an ambush that left some 20-30 gunmen dead. Meanwhile, on the political front, U.S. Customs and Border Protection Commissioner Alan Bersin appears to be carefully congratulating Mexico for killing Nacho Coronel Villarreal in a gunfight yesterday. Read what he has to say in that linked El Universal interview. Ilegal, who first told me about la muerte de Nachito, found this bizarre story of a bounty on Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio's head. Finally, I thought YeYo lent some interesting insight into the discussion today (I am not spell-checking him though or I'll be here all day ... Kidding! I'm kidding!): "Durango esta de luto por La muerte del "Cachas de diamante"..Holy shit seems super duper oficial he is dead and the worst is yet to come.I need a body and none has been brought to light as of yet, it might be premature to ask for it since this is breaking news but part of me still holds on to the fantasy of some kind of error..But all signs point to the worst. --Chapo and Nacho had a rupture over a certain kidnaping of someones wife in Sinaloa whos sister is maried to one of Chapos imidiate relative..Remember that??But I doubt  Chapo has anything to do with this because he would be a dead man via Mayo Zambada..Chapo has never been bigger than Nacho and Nacho has provided many of nice places to hide in the Sierra de Durango..Chapo aint no bigger than the next one so everybody quit griping his nuts cause he might be next.. --Juarez Cartel promised to stop the car bombs if a big Sinaloa fish was brought to justice last I heard, so it could be the goverment actualy doing their job since Cevallos hasnt apeared yet and Nacho was relased supposedly.. --Nacho has been beefing with Zetas from Durango all the way Jalisco..8 heads in Durango where Zetas trying to establish themselfs and make a move to the south..Confirmed that yesterday threw a friend who actualy lives in DGO city and saw one of the heads while driving around.. -- Why not the Marina?? Sure Chapo has pull within the ranks of the Mexican Military but he isnt god. The military operates in Zonas and this was the 15 zona historicaly not Chapos but has been known to mingle with others like FM and CDG not to mention Lazca an Nacho as well.. --Nacho had been pegged since his meeting with El Mini then Mini was killed by  nobody knows.. --He was suposedly captured then relased in exchange for Cevallos but nothing was ever mentioned or heard about Cevallos since.. --4 days ago members of Familia Michoacana where captured in Jalisco with a huge arsenal of weapons one of them being Valdemar Hernandez Barajas or (Servando Gomez Martinez..real name) the suposed son of La Tuta but later was found not to be..He was sent to advance into Jalisco but failed.. To sum it up you have to look at who would benifit from his downfall and that would NOT be the Sinaloans thats for sure..The only people that could benifit from this would be the Zetas, Familia Michoacana and the Mexican goverment..Nacho was also the king of meth and was competing for that tittle with the Familia but at the same time was beefing with Zetas..He was alos beefing with BLO over the death of his son and the horrific murder of Pepino but they dont have the pull that they used to have especialy in Jalisco or 15 Zona, so they seem to have lost a foe by way of another foe..The thing that gets me the most being from Durango is this is an oportunity for the ZZ's to move in and also the Juarez cartel..I suspect they will bump into each other on there way in and the blood will flow threw Durango like it never has before..Not to metion the mess thats about go down in Jalisco.. He went down in a gun battle and lost he even took military personel with him on his way out. and I guess if you choose to live that lifstyle thats a hell of a way to go out, I rather be alive personaly but to each his own....Arriba Durango Raza!!" Oh and one last point. I think the comments section needs to be structured differently so that the chismes and interesting details you all share, well, most of you, don't get lost as we move from one story to the next. Any suggestions, email me.

THE BORDER REPORT

Milenio and El Universal are both confirming that Nacho Coronel Villarreal died in a shootout with Mexican federal forces a short time ago. El Universal has a much more detailed preliminary story, saying the Feds had moved in on six houses searching for Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán in Jalisco when they engaged Coronel. Curious. If you'll recall, this past May, border law enforcement sources told me Nacho had been arrested in Guadalajara. They expressed frustration that the Mexican government had not admitted to the arrest and everyone presumed Nacho had bought his way out of that one. Was there a traicíon leading up to today's killing? We'll find out. Press conference at 7:30 tonight in Mexico City. The 56 year old "Rey del Cristal" was one of the leaders of the Sinaloa Cartel and was first indicted in the U.S. on cocaine conspiracy charges in 2003. Now we wait and see if the other Sinaloans gave him up or not. In early 2009, Nacho and Chapito were up here on the border holding a meeting with Phoenix-based traffickers in Nogales and Sonoyta so I can only assume they were friendly then. But that was a year ago and a year to these guys seems to be a lifetime.

THE BORDER REPORT

I honestly thought she would go the other way, but U.S. District Court Judge Susan Bolton struck down four of the key provisions of Senate Bill 1070 this morning, marginalizing what's been construed as the toughest state enforcement of federal immigration law in the country. The four key elements she blocked are: 1. Arizona will not be able to require cops to check the immigration status of someone they stop or arrest. 2. The segment of the law making it a crime to fail to carry immigration papers. 3. The segment that makes it a crime for an illegal migrant to seek or perform work. 4. Allowing police to make a warrantless arrest if they believe the person committed a crime that would lead to being deported. This is the segment of Bolton's ruling that bothers me:

"The court finds that preserving the status quo through a preliminary injunction is less harmful than allowing state laws that are likely preempted by federal laws to be enforced."

In other words, Arizona's illegal immigration influx is less of a problem than a patchwork of state laws trying to replace what the federal government is supposed to be doing. Which the federal government is NOT doing. Arizona was scheduled to begin enforcing 1070 Thursday. The court just brought us right back where we started. I find it unfortunate, not because I ever believed Arizona cops would actually have an impact on illegal immigration – they won't – but because the new law forced the federal government to take action, and I had hoped that action would come in the methodology of a comprehensive immigration reform bill. Instead, no change; status quo. I thought the judge would slap the feds around because last week, Bolton grilled the Obama Administration's lawyers on the issue of preemption; asking how the state's checking of identifications would be a preemptive act infringing on the Constitution's supremacy clause that says federal law beats out state every time. The response from Justice Department was that because the status checks were mandatory, ICE would be over-whelmed by deportation and processing requests from Arizona law enforcement. In essence, the United States argued they don't have the manpower to deal with Arizona's immigration law enforcement. You can read the Judge's decision in its entirety at TucsonSentinel.com. Here's the Feds' public relations office's response to the ruling: “We believe the court ruled correctly when it prevented key provisions of SB1070 from taking effect.  While we understand the frustration of Arizonans with the broken immigration system, a patchwork of state and local policies would seriously disrupt federal immigration enforcement and would ultimately be counterproductive. States can and do play a role in cooperating with the federal government in its enforcement of the immigration laws, but they must do so within our constitutional framework. This administration takes its responsibility to secure our borders seriously and has dedicated unprecedented resources to that effort. We will continue to work toward smarter and more effective enforcement of our laws while pressing for a comprehensive approach that provides true security and strengthens accountability and responsibility in our immigration system at the national level.” Thank you for your acknowledgment that it is indeed broken.